@TheKobeissiLetter is monitored as a public Telegram source. This profile preserves source metadata and links back to the original channel rather than treating posts as independently verified reporting.
BREAKING: As Anthropic confidentially files a draft S-1 for an IPO, the company is now expected to close above $1.8 trillion in market cap on its first day of trading. Between SpaceX and Anthropic, combined market cap on IPO day is expected to exceed $3.5 trillion. https://t.co/gfIdC8rnI3 (@TheKobeissiLetter)
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BREAKING: President Trump says he spoke with Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu and there will be “no troops going to Beirut.” He also says the US spoke with Hezbollah and they agreed that “all shooting will stop” and “Israel will not attack them.” https://t.co/RGg7ZSwj1a (@TheKobeissiLetter)
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BREAKING: President Trump responds after Iran ends all negotiations with the US, per CNBC. "I really don’t care. I couldn’t care less," Trump says. He also said he was "going to ask" Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu "what’s going on with Lebanon." (@TheKobeissiLetter)
BREAKING: President Trump says the US Navy will continue its blockade of the Strait of Hormuz as Iran says it has ended negotiations with the US due to ceasefire violations. President Trump told NBC News he had not been informed of Iran's decision ahead of time. (@TheKobeissiLetter)
Call option volume is skyrocketing: Call options now reflect 70% of total options market volume, the highest in at least 4 years. Since early April, this percentage has risen +25 points, the largest 2-month increase on record. This also exceeds the previous brief surge of ~68% seen in late 2025. To put this into...
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BREAKING: Micron, $MU, extends gains to rise above $1,000/share for the first time in history, now worth nearly $1.2 trillion. This stock was worth $60 billion just 13 months ago. https://t.co/6D64f2dsbY (@TheKobeissiLetter)
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Talk about a turn of events. Exactly 9 days ago, President Trump said a deal with Iran was coming “shortly.” Today, Iran has officially backed out of all negations with the US and is threatening to block both the Strait of Hormuz and Bab el-Mandeb. It’s going to be an eventful month. (@TheKobeissiLetter)
BREAKING: Iran announces it is ending all negotiations with the US and vows to "completely" block the Strait of Hormuz, per CNBC. Iran says it is ending negotiations due to repeated ceasefire violations including Israeli strikes in Lebanon. Iran also threatens to block the Bab el-Mandeb Strait. (@TheKobeissiLetter)
Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang responds to claims that AI is taking jobs: "People are talking about AI decreasing jobs, it's complete nonsense." https://t.co/bVWjKAMKxF (@TheKobeissiLetter)
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BREAKING: The US military has conducted strikes on Iranian targets in Goruk and Qeshm Island, Iran, in what it described as "self-defense strikes." The US says the strikes were carried out in response to "aggressive Iranian actions," including the shootdown of a US MQ-1 drone that was operating over international...
This is incredible: AI-related companies have issued ~$140 billion in investment-grade bonds year-to-date, accounting for 49% of the total IG issuance. AI-related companies have also attracted ~$220 billion in venture capital funding year-to-date, making up 87% of the total. This means nearly 9 in every 10 Dollars of...
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The US fiscal situation is much worse than that of other major economies: The US federal budget deficit stands at -6.0% of GDP, the largest among all G7 nations. The budget gap is also more than TWICE as big as the G7 average of -3.0%. By comparison, France and the UK are running deficits at -5.0% of GDP. By 2028,...
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The power revolution is next: Annual thermal power plant additions surged +70% YoY in 2025, to ~92 gigawatts, the largest annual increase since data began in 2008. This is also +28% above the prior peak of ~72 gigawatts set in 2015. The pipeline of future plants is growing even faster, with Chinese firms submitting...
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BREAKING: Iran’s President Pezeshkian has submitted an official letter of resignation to the Office of the Supreme Leader, per Iran International. In the letter, Pezeshkian stressed that the president and the government have effectively been excluded from major decision-making processes in the country and the IRGC...
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The market is experiencing a historic divergence: The ratio of the equal-weighted S&P 500 to the S&P 500 index is down to 1.1, near the lowest since 2003. This ratio is now below the 2008 Financial Crisis low of ~1.2 and is down -28% since February 2023, the biggest drawdown since the 2000 Dot-Com Bubble. Over this...
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Fiat currencies are in an eternal bear market against gold: Since 1971, the US Dollar has lost -99.24% of its value against gold, the 2nd-largest decline among major currencies. Over the same period, the British Pound has declined -99.57%. The Euro would have lost -99.08% against gold if it had existed since 1971....
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The Kobeissi Letter for the week of June 1st has been published and may be viewed through the link below: https://t.co/9c65UCfNau The Chart of the Week for the week of June 1st has been published. View or sign up for FREE through the link below: https://t.co/lFT7Stj4p1 (@TheKobeissiLetter)
BREAKING: Technology firms now account for a record 8.3% of the US high-yield corporate bond market. This percentage has risen +2 points since 2022, reflecting a surge in tech sector debt issuance. Furthermore, tech accounts for a record 10.3% of the US investment-grade corporate bond market. The technology sector...
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Retail investors are crushing Wall Street: Stocks most favored by retail investors outperformed those most favored by mutual funds by 16 percentage points in May, the largest gap since data began in 2018. The retail favorite stock basket covers mega-cap tech names, including the Magnificent 7 and semiconductor...
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Key Events This Week: 1. May ISM Manufacturing PMI data - Monday 2. April JOLTS Job Openings data - Tuesday 3. May ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI data - Wednesday 4. Initial Jobless Claims data - Thursday 5. May Jobs Report - Friday 6. Total of 7 Fed Speaker Events This Week This week is all about the labor market....
BREAKING: President Trump says he is "in no hurry" to make a deal with Iran and "if we don't get what we want, we are going to end it in a different way." Last weekend, President Trump said a deal was going to be announced "shortly." Today marks 93 days since the Iran War began. (@TheKobeissiLetter)
Americans have rarely been this bullish on equities: In December, 55% of US consumers expected higher stock prices over the next 12 months, the 3rd highest monthly reading since this question was first asked in 1987. Since April 2025, bullish sentiment has surged +17 percentage points and is just shy of its all-time...
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Inflation is increasingly outpacing American incomes: Real disposable income fell -1.1% YoY in April, the biggest decline since October 2022. On an annualized MoM basis, this metric dropped -5.6%, the biggest decline since May 2025. Furthermore, real personal income excluding government transfer payments fell -0.4%,...
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US tech stocks are rewriting the record books: The Information Technology Sector now accounts for 37% of the S&P 500’s market cap, an all-time high. This percentage has nearly DOUBLED since the 2020 market bottom. To put this into perspective, the 2000 Dot-Com Bubble peak was 35%. As a result, the tech sector's...
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World central banks are increasingly moving toward tightening: Global central banks have cut rates 31 times year-to-date, outpacing 12 hikes conducted over the same period. Over the last 3 months, there were just ~3 more rate cuts than hikes globally, the smallest gap since 2023. Developed markets have now...
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BREAKING: The US personal savings rate fell -0.6 percentage points in April, to 2.6%, the lowest since June 2022. This marks the 3rd consecutive monthly decline for a cumulative drop of -1.7 percentage points. This is also the 2nd lowest reading since April 2008. This comes as consumer spending surged +5.7% YoY in...
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The US debt crisis is set to become significantly worse: Entitlements, interest, and other mandatory outlays are estimated to consistently surpass Federal tax revenues by 2031, according to CBO. These expenditures are projected to rise to ~20% of GDP by 2040. That would be the highest percentage on record when...
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Such a divergence has never been seen in markets: The S&P 500's 3-month implied correlation is down to ~15.0%, the lowest on record. Implied correlation measures the extent to which stocks are expected to move in tandem, with a reading this low indicating significantly greater and independence among individual stocks...
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AI is about to reshape the global workforce: 24% of jobs globally, or ~838 million positions, are estimated to be exposed to generative AI. High-income countries are facing the greatest risk at ~33% of employment, with ~6% of roles potentially having the highest exposure. Jobs with the highest exposure are those with...
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AI is rapidly expanding in education. A recent study showed 85% of teachers and 86% of students used AI during the 2024-25 school year. And, teachers who use AI tools at least weekly save an average of 5.9 hours per week, the equivalent of 6 full weeks per school year. In 2025, the global AI in education market was...
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BREAKING: The S&P 500 closes at its highest level on record and posts a 9-week win streak for the first time since 2023. This puts the S&P 500 up +20.1% since the March 30th low, adding +$11.4 TRILLION in market cap in 2 months. https://t.co/qceXXrjW9s (@TheKobeissiLetter)
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BREAKING: President Trump's Situation Room meeting on a possible deal with Iran lasted for 2 hours, but did not end with a final decision on any new deal with Iran, per NYT. The Trump Administration believes it is "close" to an agreement but there are uncertainties including the unfreezing of Iranian funds....
BREAKING: US officials say President Trump has concluded his Situation Room meeting with his national security team which was convened to decide on the Iran deal. President Trump said a "final determination" was coming after this meeting. We expect more information soon. (@TheKobeissiLetter)