AMK Mapping: Kostyantynivka direction, a focus on Russian casualties and Ukrainian defenses, as well as...

Kostyantynivka direction, a focus on Russian casualties and Ukrainian defenses, as well as debunking common misunderstandings.

After seeing geolocations of Russians deep inside the city and rumors about an imminent loss of the city, many started to wonder about how effectively the defense of the city has been carried out and how the situation has deteriorated so much so quickly. I'll clear everything up step by step.

1. The effectiveness of the defense of the city currently satisfies expectations.

First of all, it's important to understand that the Russians have had Kostyantynivka in their sights since late summer 2025 after the factual capture of Toretsk on the south flank and the Novoolenivka breakthrough on the west flank of the city, and not just for a couple of months when the media picked up on the situation here.
The Russians spent the bulk of the time since late summer 2025 trying to consolidate the approaches to the city (which they're still trying to do): swathes of fields and treelines in clear view of Ukrainian FPV pilots in and near Kostyantynivka.
Because of these conditions, the Russians suffered a number of casualties that satisfied and continue to satisfy Ukrainian expectations.
At the moment, the hardest area for the Russians to cross is the short open area between Berestok and Illinivka, which was made into a kill zone by Ukrainian forces; only there, around 10 Russians are killed or wounded every day (not counting Berestok or Illinivka itself).

Why this area? Because Illinivka merges almost seamlessly with Kostyantynivka, just like Zvirove merged with Pokrovsk, and if Illinivka were to be consolidated, the western flank of Kostyantynivka would become significantly easier to penetrate.
Furthermore, this was a weak area for a long time, held by slightly weaker territorial defense units, and the Russians promptly exploited this.
Lastly, the Russians have their sights set on the incredibly valuable high-rise area of southwestern Kostyantynivka, perfect for finding numerous shelters (works for both sides).

2. The defense of the city was carried out relatively well.

With the exception of the usual phenomenon of holding untenable and insignificant positions to be able to say that the village is being held to the higher command, a phenomenon that causes avoidable deaths, the Ukrainians didn't commit any single catastrophic mistake and overall worked well together to hold positions even when the situation was extremely difficult.

3. The situation hasn't deteriorated quickly.

This is an illusion given by the fact that units are starting to publish geolocations of events that have been ongoing for a while already now.
People that don't have any contacts with anybody in this direction understandably don't know the context behind each clip and assume that that geolocation signifies something new.
In reality, everything is significantly more gradual.

It's also necessary to point out that Ukrainian forces still hold an overwhelming advantage at any point in time in the whole city in number of controlled positions and that those positions are in every corner of the city (even south of it); that the Russians are only trying to overlap themselves over those positions and force a retreat from them, which is currently at its early stages; and that the battle for Kostyantynivka is very likely to last into late summer.

Please don't get me wrong: the situation is far from good, I'll repeat this once more. But it can't be said that the situation is catastrophic and that the Ukrainians are currently being routed, or that the Russians will make a quick Zolotyi Kolodyaz-style breakthrough.